Thursday 30 June 2011

Your summer could turn cold.

The US runs out of money on 2 August. Unless Congress agrees to raise the $14.3 trillion ceiling sometime before D-day there's an excellent chance that the ratings agencies will cut the US credit rating to a notch or two above junk.

The consequences are two-fold. One; the US defaults on its debt payments. Two; large sums of cash will be withdrawn from the US treasury market prompting the US to increase interest rates to attract investment. Higher rates in the US would ultimately kill-off any hope. Forget the eurozone, Chinese PMI, Greece or Mayan calendar. This is the big one.

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