Thursday 19 April 2012

Investing in the 21st century



Ours is a world of make-believe and whilst we do our best to earn an honest living we’re lulled into a false sense of security believing our accumulated wealth has some real bearing in the future. Currency is just an exchange of paper with an assigned value. That value is ephemeral at most. A house is just its bricks and mortar. Condensing the premise a little further it’s fairly easy to conclude that PEs of 20 and more are just convoluted conjuring tricks offered to the uninitiated by profit-driven spin-doctors in Armani suits. Gold too is just a malleable metal with some industrial use and an added dose of bling. Its allure, if you like, is mostly based in history. It too has an artificial value. Natural demand versus supply would yield a gold price a great deal lower; perhaps even as low as $900 if the pendulum swung back to equilibrium. Is Gold a hedge? Against what, hunger or even, perhaps, as a foil against a failed financial system? Time will tell and that too is very much a guestimate at best. Logically, if the pawpaw hits the fan gold will have little value in exchange. Yes, sure, between the more affluent the allure holds true but amongst the other 99.9%; I think not. It would be better to store one or two bushels of grain.

As for the markets it’s only a matter of time before our very real problems become unmanageable and when it does I would hazard that ALL investments will quickly dissolve into meaningless. Nevertheless, Armageddon is not in our immediate future so we’ll continue to live in the here and now exploiting discrepancies and or inefficiencies for self-promotion and a little profit. If that’s AAPL then so be it. If it’s an AU etf then that too is fine.

Just don't take yourself too seriously, time is the only legacy. 


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